Waiting on the CPI print, with London counting the cost

The summer trade runs out

City A.M. put it bluntly on Monday afternoon: the Federal Reserve wants investors to get used to higher interest rates. By Tuesday morning that message had worked its way through most of the day's market copy. The Wall Street Journal, publishing overnight, declared the stock market's breezy summer over and told investors to beware. Asian equities were mixed as traders waited on US consumer price data due this week, and the Nikkei closed 0.6 per cent lower, dragged down by electronics and machinery names.

Europe's bond market told a similar story from a different angle. A rise in German Bund yields, the Journal reported, was almost entirely attributable to expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike rather than to any shift in term premium or supply.

Gold came under pressure with the inflation figures in focus, having already slipped as rate-hike expectations firmed. That has not deterred everyone. The South China Morning Post canvassed Wall Street forecasters who have turned bullish on bullion and are debating whether US$5,000 an ounce is reachable, even as strong US job growth feeds the rate fears weighing on the metal in the short run.

For all that, the year's scoreboard remains comfortable. Stock funds are up 12.6 per cent for the year so far, according to the Journal's monthly tally of fund performance through August. The same paper ran a companion piece on how institutional investors move markets and how their footprints can be read.

A Budget in the post, and departures

Sterling edged higher after the UK Treasury chief's speech on Monday, which was about the kindest thing said about it all day. This is Money reported that Healey hinted at a Budget tax raid while City bosses urged spending cuts instead, arguing that jittery gilt markets need restraint rather than revenue. The paper had already argued at the weekend that the bond market blowout has come at the worst possible time for the UK. City A.M. carried a warning from a FTSE 100 pensions boss that without growth the tax bill will have to rise further still, and a commentary piece observing that Healey wants to talk about the future while business remains haunted by past mistakes.

One name left. Chris Rokos, the hedge fund billionaire who paid £330m in tax last year, is quitting the UK, joining what both City A.M. and This is Money describe as an exodus of the wealthy under Labour.

Corporate Britain provided its own commentary. Spire Healthcare, the country's largest private hospital operator, agreed a £1bn takeover by the hedge fund Toscafund, and used the occasion to take aim at Labour's tax rises as it leaves the public market. City A.M. traced how the NHS backlog has fuelled a private equity gold rush in UK health. Elsewhere, shares in the telecoms firm Gamma Communications edged up as investors positioned for a bidding war.

Two further items from the same morning: a warning that the UK risks its £290bn finance industry "being governed overseas", and a poll showing Labour taking a narrow lead over Reform as a donation row wounds Nigel Farage.

Tariffs, metal and a poor debut

Canada's counter-tariffs on US goods took effect, and the BBC reported the country bracing for a prolonged trade war rather than a quick settlement. Trade policy showed up in the commodity pits too: LME copper hit a record, driven by supply problems and concern over US tariffs on the metal.

China's August trade figures landed in the small hours. Imports missed estimates, according to CNBC, strengthening the calls for rebalancing towards domestic demand rather than an ever larger surplus. Two domestic corporate notes from the South China Morning Post filled in the texture: the country's leading electric-vehicle battery makers are now earning close to double the profits of the carmakers they supply, and SenseTime has used generative AI to turn a profit while several of its Chinese peers continue to struggle.

Hong Kong's newest listing has had a rough introduction. Nearly £4bn was wiped off the value of Shein in its first week on the exchange. Mainland brokers, meanwhile, are expected to keep up their strong run on the back of a pipeline of blockbuster IPOs.

In the UK Midlands, the BBC spoke to workers about job cuts at JLR, where the mood was described as uncertainty and worry. And in New York, Robinhood has taken a new role in the Oura flotation, appearing as an underwriter rather than merely a distribution channel for retail orders.