The journal
Notes from the watch
A short entry most mornings: what moved and what the day's reporting said about it. Descriptive, sourced, and held to written checks that decide whether an entry publishes at all. Never a recommendation. The editorial rules →
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Anthropic files, HSBC slips and Brazil tumbles
Anthropic's filing, HSBC's results, Brazil's election and rising shop prices.
Budget eve, Canadian tariffs and a bank called cheap
Budget previews, Canadian tariff relief and bid talk around Barclays.
Yields diverge, oil climbs and a Hong Kong listing falters
Bond markets split, London slips on oil and Hong Kong's mega listing disappoints.
AI nerves, a Musk merger and a poor day in Hong Kong
Tech selloff, Meta's AI bill, Tesla and SpaceX, and Asian and French jitters.
Inflation at 3.5% as Musk floats a SpaceX–Tesla merger
UK inflation, a Musk merger plan and oil higher after a Saudi drone attack.
Musk floats a SpaceX-Tesla merger as rate bets climb
A Musk merger proposal, higher UK rate bets and fresh doubts over the AI boom.
France unsettles Europe as London counts its profit warnings
French unrest, European bonds, UK profit warnings and share giveaways from Musk and Anthropic.
Tokyo slips, profit warnings mount and China quickens
A soft open for markets, a rise in UK profit warnings, and Anthropic's share pledge.
A poor week for the AI trade, and a crowded Saturday for Mr Bailey
Wall Street's worst week since June, Bailey at the IMF, and the bank tax argument.
Wall Street's worst week since June, and a bank tax for London
AI jitters on Wall Street, Healey's bank tax and an IPO fraud clampdown in Hong Kong.
Rotation out of tech as the Fed chairman's remarks loom
A rotation out of tech, a hot PPI reading and a crowded week for UK fiscal news.
A hot American inflation figure unsettles markets from New York to Tokyo
Hot US inflation, an overnight slide in Asia and a contrary view from the Bank of England.
Bank profits rise, shares slip, and markets wait on prices
Bank earnings, waiting bond markets, and inflation at the British checkout.
The IMF upgrades Britain and warns on bond yields
IMF forecasts, bond yields, oil and a busy day for takeovers.
Forecasters expect yields to stay high as oil eases at the open
Bond yields, inflation bills, cheaper oil and Asian rule changes.
Yields slow their climb as household strains come into view
Bond yields, small caps, household debt and the longer view.
Yields climb, a London debut disappoints and the Fed draws fire
Bond strain, a muted London flotation and pressure on the Fed.
Gilts at a 28-year high as Bailey turns to the Budget
Gilt yields, a governor's warning, oil swings and a record from Samsung.
Borrowing costs climb from Washington to London
Bond yields rise on both sides of the Atlantic; shares, gold and the Nikkei ease.
Records in New York, nerves in the gilt market
Tech-led records in New York, Budget nerves in London and a crowded week for deals.
A Nasdaq record, rising yields and a nervous Paris
Nasdaq record, French bond strain, Sainsbury's talks and Schneider's PTC deal.
Gilts touch 6% as gold firms on softer inflation
UK yields hit 6%, gold rises, the euro slips and Schroders looks to Hong Kong.
French bonds stumble, the Nasdaq leads and Tesco eyes Majestic Wine
French bonds, a Nasdaq-led Friday and British deal talk.
Gilts touch 6% as the bond rout widens
UK yields hit 6%, US stocks rise on soft jobs, and IG, Wetherspoon and Capita make news.
Gilts cross six per cent as the bond sale spreads
Gilt yields top 6%, Treasuries swing, oil passes $102 and Home REIT goes to court.
Yields return to the turn of the century as technology carries the indices
Treasury and gilt yields at multi-decade highs, a tech-led Nasdaq and a record Hong Kong IPO year.
Yields reach fresh highs as oil climbs past $107
Rising yields and oil weigh on shares; builders rally; Shein slides in Hong Kong.
Gold slips, China cools and London keeps dealing
Gold, surging yields, softer Chinese profits and a busy London deal market.
Shares shrug at yields as the City counts its takeovers
Stocks defy yields, the Bank of England tries AI, and takeovers keep coming.
Yields climb, then ease, at the end of a restless week
Bond yields, a warning from Andrew Bailey and a late lift for stocks.
Treasuries lead a broad bond selloff
A Treasury selloff spreads to gilts, gold and stocks, with pensions and company results close behind.
Ten-year Treasury yield reaches a 19-year high
A 19-year high in the US ten-year yield, spreading to gilts, and Airtel Money's London float plan.
Oil slips under $100 and the London queue gets shorter
Cheaper oil lifted tech and gold held firm; the RAC shelved its London IPO.
Oil slides, Nasdaq sets a record, and UK households brace for the Budget
Falling oil lifts the Nasdaq to a record; UK confidence hits a three-year low; Paramount clears a path to Warner Bros.
Yields, cash piles and a $35bn filing
Treasury yields near 5%, institutional cash piles, and Nscale's US listing filing.
A hold in London, higher yields in New York
The Bank holds, the pound slides, and Wall Street ends a jumpy week on rising Treasury yields.
A week of hikes hinted, hikes delivered, and a quiet finish
Central banks pulled in different directions this week while US stocks ended volatile trading on a quiet note.
Three central banks, three answers
The Bank of England holds and reworks its bond sales, while Washington and Tokyo tighten.
Warsh raises, and the Dow gives up more than 600 points
The Fed lifts rates for the first time in three years; the Dow falls over 600 points and the Bank of England prepares to hold.
A five handle on the ten-year, and gilts at a 28-year high
Bond yields set the tone on both sides of the Atlantic as a heavy week of central bank meetings begins.
A five handle on the ten-year, and an oil price to match
Oil at $108 sends the US 10-year to 5%, with UK borrowing costs at a 28-year high and rate rises now expected on both sides of the Atlantic.
Rates week opens with oil at a four-month high
Three central banks meet this week while oil rallies on Middle East tension and the gilt debate sharpens.
A rate rise in prospect, and shares that did not mind
Hot US inflation, a Fed poised to tighten, and a £100bn argument over gilt sales.
A hot inflation print, and the market takes the hint
August CPI firms up rate-rise bets, bond yields sit near multiyear highs, and the FTSE rallies on surprise growth.
Oil above $100 tips the bond market past its limits
Oil near $106 drove yields to multiyear highs as the ECB raised rates and Fed hike odds firmed.
A $6bn buyback, and a bond market that wanted more
Yields rise on a smaller-than-hoped Treasury buyback; listings news from Texas to Hong Kong; and tariffs reach the beer aisle.
A 628-point drop, and the autumn arguments begin
Stocks fall as the Fed and inflation return to centre stage; Bailey denies a secret plan on rates; Canada's tariffs take effect.
Waiting on the CPI print, with London counting the cost
Rate-hike talk cools markets before US CPI; UK Budget nerves, a £1bn hospital takeover and Canada's counter-tariffs.
Oil higher on new US-Iran strikes, and a Fed that may be about to tighten
Oil up on Iran strikes, gold down on Fed hike bets, and gilts unsettle Westminster.
A strong jobs number, and a hike back on the table
Robust US jobs data lifted yields and revived rate-hike talk, as UK corporate news brought job cuts, a buyout approach and a bonus row.
A strong jobs report turns the week around
Friday's jobs data pushed yields up and stocks down, reversing Thursday's rally, while bond market strain drew attention in London and Hong Kong.
A hold counted as dovish
Waller's rate signal lifts stocks and bonds; gilt turbulence reaches UK mortgages; the yen surges as Asia deleverages.
Long bonds set the agenda, and the UK pays most
A global bond sell-off pushes UK long-term borrowing costs to a 28-year high, with fiscal arithmetic and Asian flows in the background.
Bond yields climb everywhere, and the bill arrives in Whitehall
Global bond rout lifts UK long yields to a 28-year high, squeezes fiscal headroom and drags equities and gold with it.
Oil climbs, yields follow, and Shein lands badly in Hong Kong
Crude and bond yields rise on Iran, Shein's Hong Kong debut falls flat, and Andrew Bailey warns the G20 about frontier AI.
Momentum unwinds while the Fed talk turns hawkish
Momentum stocks unravel, Warsh talks tough at Jackson Hole, and Britain debates who pays for growth.
Warsh's debut lifts yields, while Threadneedle Street signals patience
Jackson Hole moves yields and gold, the Bank of England hints at patience, and Britain's capital markets get another round of advice from outside.
Warsh puts prices first, and the bond market takes him at his word
Warsh's Jackson Hole debut lifted yields and knocked stocks; BYD, BOCHK and Colman's Mustard fill out the rest of the week.
Nvidia's forecast carries the Nasdaq, and Jackson Hole waits on Warsh
Nvidia's guidance lifts the Nasdaq as the Fed's Hammack argues for rate rises and Warsh prepares to speak at Jackson Hole.
Nvidia answers, and the rest of the ledger stays open
Nvidia's results, a 3.3% core PCE reading, and Aggreko's New York filing.
Bond sales, buy-backs and a queue of tariffs
Gilt sales, Bessent's bond plans, Canada's retaliation and a lengthening IPO queue.
Yields ease as the Treasury eyes its own cash pile
Treasury buyback talk and falling oil pull yields down; Trump adds a 50% tariff on Canadian cars, trucks and steel; Shein prices its Hong Kong debut at $27bn.
A quiet Tokyo open, and a week built around one set of results
Nvidia anticipation, a UK business rates review and busy bond and listing calendars open the week.
The bond market answers back, and everyone else worries about AI
Bessent's bond gambit, Britain's gilt battleground and a Wall Street camp spooked by artificial intelligence.
The bond market has the last word on Bessent's buyback
Yields rose through the week despite the Treasury's buyback plan, as bids and listings carried on elsewhere.
A buyback rally that lasted a day
Yields rebound after the Treasury buyback bounce fades, while JD Sports issues its second profit warning in three months.
Washington buys back, and the bond rout pauses for breath
Treasury buybacks steady yields after a global bond rout, UK inflation hits a four-month high, and Moderna and Unitree post outsized single-day moves.
Yields at decade highs, and Wall Street sees no end to it
A deepening global bond rout, oil and Hormuz, and a late reprieve for Canadian imports.
Oil jumps as the US-Iran ceasefire lapses, and the long bond keeps climbing
Ceasefire expiry lifts crude and bond yields; the AI trade gets reshuffled from Oslo to Shanghai.
Tokyo holds, London counts the cost of the next energy bill
Asia opens mixed, and the weekend's UK coverage turns on energy bills, gilt yields and a stalled labour market.
Higher yields at home, a third good week abroad
UK gilt costs and energy bills lead the Sunday papers, while the S&P 500 logs a third straight weekly gain.
A third weekly gain, and a week of asking who is holding what
Records midweek, a slip on Friday, and a run of stories about what sits inside portfolios.
Records at one end of the curve, 25-year highs at the other
Equities at records, long bond yields at 25-year highs, and Aviva's first full year with Direct Line.
SpaceX's first report knocks a hole in the debutant
SpaceX shares fell 14% on its first results since listing, as London eased IPO rules and Glencore looked to Australia.
Oil eases on Iran talk, and Wall Street closes at a record
Wall Street records, easing oil on Iran deal reports, and a heavy day of earnings from BP to SpaceX.
A month of revived inflation fears closes with tech doing the heavy lifting
Month-end brings rising yields, split tech earnings and a busy week ahead for UK deals.
Two central banks stand still, and both look nervously outward
Rate holds in London and Washington, splits on both committees, and a heavy run of corporate earnings.
A bumper dividend, and rate rises back on the table
Water dividends, an Iran-driven rate warning, easing oil, and a run of corporate news across the weekend's papers.
Tariffs land, oil retreats, and tech investors count the cost of AI
Trump's forced-labour tariffs, Brent's slide back below $100 and an AI spending scare shaped Friday's trading.
Oil past $100 keeps rates on hold as the AI trade wobbles
Oil above $100 froze central banks, tech spending rattled markets, and Trump widened tariffs.
London's deal-making tally climbs as Wall Street waits on the Fed
Rising yields ahead of the Fed, a chip rally, and another wave of London buyouts.
Beijing buys, the Fed steadies, and London counts its warnings
China's markets draw official support and a broker upgrade; London counts profit warnings tied to the Iran conflict.
Chips slide as the market waits for Big Tech to justify itself
The chip slump deepens, Apple retakes Wall Street's crown, and water investors register their displeasure.
Chips lead Wall Street lower as the IMF cautions Threadneedle Street
Chip stocks fell again, Netflix slid on guidance, and the IMF urged the Bank of England to hold.
Chips wobble as TSMC breaks records, and Britain's bargain hunt widens
Semiconductors led Wall Street lower even as TSMC reported record profit, while UK takeover activity and an IMF rate warning framed the London session.
A first dent for SpaceX, and warnings for UK investors
SpaceX falls below its IPO price as US bidders eye UK plc and oil jitters return.
Cooler prices, hotter banks, and a nervous glance eastward
US inflation cooled and bank profits surged, while oil, IBM and China's slowdown supplied the caveats.
A morning of bidders, both welcome and unwelcome
Bid activity crowds the London tape as oil rises on Iran-US strain.
The machine's ledger, and everyone else's
AI's costs and disputes dominate, while Britain counts the fiscal reckoning.