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Treasuries lead a broad bond selloff

US yields posted their sharpest rise since the tariff shock as talk of another Fed hike spread, pulling gilts, gold and equities along with them.

· The Sentryfolio Journal · 3 min read

Treasuries set the tone

The week's dominant story was the American bond market. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday evening that Treasury yields had resumed their rise. By Thursday morning its live coverage said the bond selloff was worsening and denting stocks. This is Money went further. US bond yields, it said, had soared by the most since Trump's tariff shock, amid fears that the Federal Reserve is set for another rate hike.

The words 'another rate hike' carry most of the weight. CNBC framed the surge as a brand new problem for Kevin Warsh and the Fed. It also ran an explainer on what happens to the economy when Treasury yields soar as they are now. The Journal offered a different emphasis, arguing that the robust US economy is powering through rate hikes and rising yields.

Other markets moved with it. Gold fell amid expectations of a Fed rate increase. The Journal put the pressure on US stocks down to rising yields and raging conflict in the Middle East, though one of its columnists argued that bond traders are paying too much attention to the oil price. In Asia on Friday, bond yields rose despite a decline in oil, as caution reigned. The Singapore dollar consolidated, with the Journal noting that Fed rate-hike prospects could weigh on it. Tokyo was steadier. The Nikkei rose 0.5%, led by bank stocks.

In Zurich, the Swiss National Bank kept its rate at 0%. CNBC added the qualifier: for now.

Gilts, the Budget and pensions

London had its own version of the week. This is Money described bond market chaos as UK borrowing costs spiked on Thursday, just as Andy Burnham stood by his assertion that Britain should be less 'in hock' to bond markets. City A.M. reported that a plan by Healey to slash headroom would 'not be received well' by a nervous bond market.

The rate outlook hardened too. City A.M. said interest rate hikes were 'increasingly likely', despite continuing debate over the inflation risk. This is Money reported alarm at the Bank over a global inflation 'tinderbox', as yields soared and fears of a rate rise deepened. In the same title, Alex Brummer wrote that the bond market and the stock market are both sounding the alarm that a crash may be coming.

Pensions drew the sharpest political heat. This is Money described a £40bn pension pot panic. Burnham has been urged to rule out a Budget raid on tax-free lump sums, after a surge of withdrawals under Reeves. City A.M. carried the industry's warning to Healey: stamp out pension tax speculation or risk another cash grab. The same day, This is Money looked at offers of up to £3,000 cashback for opening a pension, and what savers weighing them might watch out for.

On tax more broadly, a Treasury minister told City A.M. that founders should not be 'put off' by inheritance tax.

Results, floats and Asia

Company news in London was mixed. Raspberry Pi shares surged after profit tripled on hot demand, City A.M. reported. DFS said profit had jumped, helped along by an Amanda Holden sofa range.

The housebuilding and retail side was harder going. Vistry slashed its profit forecasts as losses ballooned, according to the Guardian. JD Sports reported falling sales and profits, and blamed the cost-of-living crisis for hitting young people.

On listings, This is Money reported that Airtel Money, the African mobile payments group, is plotting the largest float on the London Stock Exchange for five years. City A.M. asked whether it would kickstart London's IPO pipeline. In China, Deloitte said a slowdown in humanoid robot IPOs posed no threat to firms with 'genuine strength'.

Further east, the South China Morning Post carried a string of market pieces. DBS Bank said investors were pivoting to selective China bets in technology as property growth fades. ChinaAMC launched three Hong Kong ETFs as demand for targeted strategies grows. High office vacancy rates spurred a bid to rezone a Kowloon East site for residential development. HSBC and Hang Seng are to unify staff benefits across Hong Kong from January, according to internal memos reported by the paper.

In Europe, Finance Watch warned of online tactics designed to influence retail investors, Euronews reported.

Sources

This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice.

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